Nigerian Voices On The 2023 General Elections
Abuja, Nigeria, August 1, 2022 – Africa Polling Institute (API) in partnership with BusinessDay conducted a nationwide poll between 18th and 22nd of July 2022 to gauge the perception of Nigerians towards the 2023 General Elections in Nigeria. A quantitative approach was adopted for the poll involving telephone interviews administered to target respondents aged 18 years and above. A Stratified Random Sampling Technique was adopted to representatively select citizens in all 36 states of the nation and the Federal capital Territory (FCT).
A total of 1,020 completed interviews were captured in the poll out of 3,835 calls made, representing a response rate of approximately 27%. The interviews were conducted in five major Nigerian languages (English, Pidgin-English, Hausa, Igbo and Yoruba) to ensure inclusiveness, wider access to geographical landscape of the country with adequate representation. The average time per interview was 10 minutes.
Post-stratification of gender and geo-political zone weights were applied to the data to make it more representative of the population, allow for more accurate population totals of estimates and reduce non-response bias. The weights assigned were in proportion to the 2006 population figures. The margin of error for this poll does not exceed plus or minus 3 percent at the mid-range with a confidence level of 95 percent. The descriptive analysis for this poll involves tabulation of responses in frequency table and charts.
In summary, the poll revealed that majority of citizens (73%) have given the 2023 General Elections some thought/quite a lot of thought, Similarly, (92%) are looking forward to vote in the general elections. Findings from the poll shows that (80%) of the respondent have collected their Permanent Voters Card (PVCs), and another (13%) who are awaiting PVC collection. Cumulatively, 93% of respondents are interested in the coming elections. Interestingly, 67% of the respondent do not consider religion as a factor in deciding who should lead the country in 2023. On the other hand, 27% affirmed that religion is very important when deciding who should lead the country in 2023.
Furthermore, 62% of respondents trust the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to conduct a hitch-free election come 2023. In conclusion, capacity and competence to revive the economy (30%), commitment to tackle insecurity (29%), and commitment to promoting good governance and cohesion (17%) were identified as the top three qualities Nigerians expect to see from the next president.
Detailed Poll Results & Findings
The first question from the poll asked respondents how much thought they have given to the 2023 General Elections. From the poll responses, the majority of respondents (73%) affirmed that they have given the 2023 General Elections some thought /quite a lot of thought, while others (27%) said that they have given it little or thought at all. Further analysis by socio-demography shows the majority from North East (85%), North Central (79%), North West (78%) have given the 2023 Election A lot of thought and the lowest in the South East. Also, the elderly 60 years plus seem to have given the Election A lot of thought compared to the younger generation.
As a follow-up to the preceding analysis, the second question sought to examine how citizens are looking forward to voting in the 2023 General Elections. Overall, findings from the poll revealed that 92% of citizens are looking forward to voting in the coming elections while others either said no (5%), or refused to give their opinion (3%) on the question. The poll also went further to gauge the opinions of those who are not looking forward to vote in the coming elections and findings revealed that about 81% of respondents said that they have lost hope in the Nigeria electoral process, while No PVC (8%), Heightened Insecurity (8%), and being Security Personnels (3%) were some of the reasons given.
The next question focused on how many citizens have their Permanent Voters Card (PVCs), as respondents were asked if they have a Permanent Voters Card. To this, findings revealed that Majority (80%) of respondents have their PVCs, compared to 13% of respondents who are awaiting collection or have just registered to collect theirs. Cumulatively, 97% of the respondents are interested in the coming elections. Analysis by geo-political zones revealed that majority of those who have PVCs are in the North-East (89%), North-West (87%), and South-East (85%), and further analysis reveals that the majority of citizens who say they have their PVCs are senior citizens (60+)
Furthermore, citizens were asked whether religion should be a deciding factor in who should lead Nigeria in 2023. Interestingly, some respondents (67%) asserted that religion shouldn’t be a factor in deciding governance and who should lead Nigeria in 2021, while 27% of respondents maintain their stand on a balanced ticket considering the level of polarization in Nigeria today. Further disaggregation of the data by geo-political zones showed that the North West (73%), North-East (73%), South-East (68%) and South-West (67%) stated that No, religion doesn’t matter, while those in the North-Central (34%) and South-South (29%) stated that religion is very important when it comes to choosing who should lead Nigeria in 2023.
To gauge citizens opinion towards the conduct of the 2023 elections, respondents were asked on their trust level for INEC to conduct a free and fair elections in the coming general elections. To this, 62% of respondents affirmed that they trust INEC to conduct a hitch-free elections, compared to 10% of respondents who said No, and another 28% who Can’t Say whether they trust INEC or not. Majority of the people who said they trusted Inec to conduct a Free & Fair Elections were from the North-East (81%), North-West (80%), South-East (61%), and mostly males between the age bracket of 18-35 years.
Lastly, the poll sought to understand the major qualities the next president of Nigerians should possess as respondents were asked what they consider the three most important qualities the next President of Nigeria should have. From the data, 64% of respondents said the next president should have the capacity and competence to revive the economy, 61% of respondents affirmed that the next president should have a commitment to tackle the heightened insecurity in the country, and commitment to promoting good governance and Cohesion (36%).
Africa Polling Institute (API) is an independent, non-profit and non-partisan opinion research think-tank, which conducts opinion polls, surveys, social research, and evaluation studies at the intersection of democracy, governance, economic conditions, markets, and public life; to support better public policy, practice, and advocacy in sub-Saharan Africa.
Professor Bell Ihua
Executive Director, Africa Polling Institute