Ighodalo ahead of Okpebholo, Akpata, Others – API Poll
Abuja, Nigeria, August 21st, 2024 – Africa Polling Institute is pleased to present the results and findings from its latest public opinion polling activity – the EdoState2024 Pre-Election poll. The poll puts Mr. Asue Ighodalo, candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), ahead of his two closest opponents, Mr. Monday Okpebholo of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Mr. Olumide Akpata of the Labour Party (LP). The state-wide poll, conducted between August 12th and 16th, 2024, aimed at capturing the perceptions and attitudes of Edo State Citizens, Residents, and Voters on the forthcoming Gubernatorial Elections in the state.
In summary, the poll revealed that Mr. Asue Ighodalo (with 43%) is currently in a strong position, maintaining a 23-point lead over his closest opponent, Mr. Monday Okpebholo (with 20%), while Mr. Olumide Akpata (with 9%) trails from a distance. However, a significant proportion of undecided voters, 28%, may be able to swing the votes in favour of any of the two leading candidates.
In addition, 94% of respondents were registered in Edo State and had collected their permanent voters’ cards (PVCs), while 83% had given some thought to the Edo 2024 Governorship Election. In terms of election integrity, 47% of respondents are not at all confident in INEC’s ability to conduct a free, fair, and credible election, while 34% have some confidence and 19% have complete confidence in INEC. Also, 80% of respondents said they feel safe going out to vote on election day.
Respondents were also asked which political party stood the best chance of winning the Edo 2024 Governorship Election. From the response, 42% thought that PDP stands the best chance of winning, followed by 22% who mentioned APC and 6% who favoured LP. When asked if they were sure to vote in the Edo 2024 Governorship Election, 82% responded affirmatively, 9% said they wouldn’t be voting, and 8% said they were unsure.
The data further revealed that the top five factors that will mainly influence voters’ decision in the election are the Candidate’s competence (57%), the Candidate’s Personality (42%), the Candidate’s Experience and Track Record (36%), the Political Party (34%), and the Party Manifesto / Policy Stance (16%), amongst others. Consequently, when asked which candidate meets these factors, 43% of respondents thought it was Asue Ighodalo, 21% mentioned Monday Okpebholo, and 7% believed Olumide Akpata. However, 29% of the respondents were unsure of the candidate that meets the factors.
Lastly, respondents were asked, “Now speaking about yourself, if the election were to be held today, which Governorship candidate would you vote for?” In response, 43% of respondents said they would vote for Mr. Asue Ighodalo of the PDP, 20% said they would vote for Mr. Monday Okpebholo of the APC, and only 9% said they would vote for Mr. Olumide Akpata of the Labour Party. However, 28% said they were undecided about who to vote for.
Furthermore, when probed for the reasons why they would vote for each of these candidates:
- The 43% rooting for Asue Ighodalo identified reasons such as- his Capacity, Qualifications, and Life Accomplishments (30%), His Corporate Boardroom and economic experience (24%), His Manifesto and Policy Plans to transform the State and Create Jobs (15%), His Credibility, Honesty, and Easygoing Personality (10%), and His Senatorial District and Ethnicity (10%), among others.
- The 20% strongly supporting Monday Okpebholo identified reasons such as- His Political Party, being the ruling APC (30%), being a Homeboy (25%), being a Serving Senator of the Federal Republic (19%), having empowered people (15%), and being a young candidate (6%), among others.
- The 9% who said they would vote for Olumide Akpata identified reasons such- as His Political party being the Labour Party (30%), his being Obedient (27%), and being a young candidate (24%), among others.
In conclusion, API believes the 2024 Edo Governorship Election will eventually end up a two-horse race between PDP and APC; and a lot depends on which candidate has what it takes to win over the hearts of Edo people and swing the 28% of undecided voters in their favour.
Polling Methodology
This is an Edo state-wide public opinion poll conducted by the Africa Polling Institute (API). The opinion poll was administered between August 12th and 16th, 2024. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 2,687 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years plus, representing the 18 Local Government Areas in Edo State, were interviewed. The sample consisted of N = 2,687 voters across 18 LGAs – Etsako Central (94), Etsako East (98), Etsako West (157), Owan East (145), Akoko Edo (211), Owan West (83), Esan North East (87), Esan South East (118), Igueben (62), Esan Central (137), Esan West (155), Egor (279), Ikpoba-Okha (306), Oredo (302), Orhionmwon (131), Ovia North East (108), Ovia South West (123), and Uhunmonde (90).
All interviews were conducted in five major languages spoken in Edo State: English, Pidgin English, Benin, Esan, and Etsako languages. All LGAs were proportionately represented in the poll, and the average time per completed interview was 8 minutes. Post-stratification gender and senatorial district weights were applied to the data to make it more representative, to allow for more accurate population totals of estimates, and to reduce non-response bias. The weights assigned were in proportion to the 2006 population figures. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 5%. Members of the public are welcome to suggest questions to the monthly poll.
Africa Polling Institute (API) is an independent, non-profit, and non-partisan opinion research think tank that conducts opinion polls, surveys, social research, and evaluation studies at the intersection of democracy, governance, economic conditions, markets, and public life to support better public policy, practice, and advocacy in sub-Saharan Africa.
Signed
Professor Bell Ihua
Executive Director, Africa Polling Institute
Email: info@africapolling.org Website: www.africapolling.org Tel: +234 8064841888.
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